Market outlook and investment opportunities for 2021

Roger Montgomery, Founder and CIO
Montgomery Investment Management

Listen now

Don't miss an episode by subscribing to the Portfolio Construction Series:

  


In this episode, Roger Montgomery, Founder and CIO at Montgomery Investment Management joins us to discuss the outlook for the Australian and global economy, the potential of residential property and best places to invest across Australian asset classes. 


Transcript

Paul O'Connor (POC): To the Netwealth Portfolio Construction Podcast series. My name is Paul O'Connor, and I'm the Head of Investment Management and research for Netwealth Investments. Today, we welcome back roger Montgomery, who's the chairman and chief investment officer of Montgomery Investment Management. Welcome back, Roger.

Roger Montgomery (RM): Hi Paul. It's good to be with you and thanks for having me.

POC: Roger is the founder of Montgomery Investment Management and brings more than two decades of investment and financial market experience, knowledge, and relationships to bear in his role as Chief Investment Officer. Montgomery was established 2010 and is a specialist Australian equities boutique that employs six full-time professional investors.

Montgomery expanded its investment offering by launching two separately resourced global equities strategies in July 2015. The investment strategies offered a high conviction and employ a style-neutral investment approach. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Fleming, BT Australia, and Merrill Lynch, and in 2010, published his first book, the best-selling investment title, Value.able.

Both global and Australian equities markets experienced a significant sell-off in March and April last year, but the subsequent bounce back in the second quarter was nothing short of extraordinary. Over the last 12 months, the S&P 300 index has returned about a negative 2.7%, which I guess, given all the bad news, and what has gone on over the last 12 months, we'd have to consider reasonable. However, no matter how you value a company, share prices appear to remain at very high levels, particularly the prices of many companies that aren't making any profit or paying any dividends.

I'll certainly be interested to hear Roger's views on the market volatility in 2010, what he thinks about current valuations, and if there are still any investment opportunities on the horizon over the short term. Roger, a lot's happened, both personally and professionally, since we last caught up in February last year. How the business go adjusting to the onset of COVID and, I guess, most of your staff having to work from home?

RM: It was all fairly seamless for us, Paul. We feel like we were luxuriating in our isolation because we weren't required to drive a bus. We weren't required to down tools. We just went on our way, so we were incredibly fortunate. We didn't suffer any of, I guess, the pains or the adjustments that were required by many other industries. We didn't experience what the retailers experienced, for example, and property centre owners experienced. We were able to really fly along undisturbed, observing how everyone else was experiencing the crisis.

We're also very fortunate that I came back... I went on a ski trip. I'd been in Japan. First time ever that I'd skied overseas, and the family and I, we came back, it was the 26th of January, 2020. We were wearing masks on the plane because there had been some COVID cases reported in Tokyo, but we were the only people wearing masks on the plane. My kids were really getting stuck into me about forcing them to wear masks when nobody else on the plane was.

Now, the reason I tell you that story is that we were convinced it was a serious issue. When we got back, when we all got back to the office, one of the things that we immediately did was we set up a project to track the testing rates around the world. Everyone else, there was a lot of tracking going on of cases. There was a lot of tracking of deaths, but we didn't see many people tracking testing. What we knew, that if you don't test, you don't find.

The U.S. was looking pretty safe, but what we found out through our research was that in January of 2020, the U.S... Now, remember, the U.S. has a population of about 335 million people. They were testing... And I kid you not, Paul. They were testing 40 people per day, on average, in January. This is all of their pathology centres, private and public. The CDC centres, as well as the private centres. We were tracking them all.

And then in February, they were testing... And remember, in February is when the virus jumped from Wuhan to South Korea and to Italy. They were testing... In the United States, again, nothing to see here, ladies and gentlemen. They were testing 92 people per day, on average.

POC: Wow! Yes.

RM: So we knew that there was a crisis coming, and as soon as the U.S. admitted enough to start testing, they would find very, very high infection rates, primarily because... Because they weren't testing, they didn't know how serious the problem was, and they were letting it spread. Even when they knew how big the problem was, they let it spread, anyway.

But we knew that that was going to be a surprise to the market. What we did... In the Small Companies Fund, we moved to about 40% cash in February, and then in the Montgomery Fund and the Montgomery Private Fund, we moved to between 33 and 37% cash. We really did sidestep, quite fortunately, the worst of the sell-off in the Australia market.

POC: Yeah. Interesting, your comments there, Roger, because I think similar comments have been made about Indonesia. I remember they were one of the countries that had one of the lowest, I think, incidents of COVID per capita, but they also had the lowest testing in the world around March, April last year. Yeah, it's certainly interesting there. But I'm guessing that would have been the highest cash levels you've held in the funds since inception?

RM: Yes. Well, certainly for the Small Companies Fund, that's right. Now, we're back to well less than 10%. In some cases, less than 5% cash. We're back to fully invested.

POC: Yeah. Well, I guess it also highlights the value of a strategy that has some flexibility to be able to go to cash, because a lot of your peers, obviously, are fully invested, and they're stuck invested in the market if they feel that there's going to be a significant impact that will cause a downflow of equity prices. But yeah, it's been an amazing 12 months.

RM: Yeah, it sure has. Look, the reality is, being able to correctly pick when to go to cash and when to go into shares, I think that's a fool's game. I think long-term, you want to be fully invested. As we'll no doubt explore in this podcast, there are plenty of opportunities to make money in the market most of the time.

POC: Mm-hmm (affirmative). All right. Well, moving on to the questions we've got for you today, there, Roger. From an economic perspective, the outlook for 2021 appears to point to a strong economic recovery, based on some return to normality due to the vaccine developments. What's your view on the outlook for the Australian economy this year?

RM: Yeah, I think we're in a really good place, thanks to some really wise economic management, particularly JobKeeper. I think that's really helped our economy. There was a lot of fear about what might happen at the end of JobKeeper in March this year. A lot of that fear has dissipated. I think what we'll see is a continuation of JobKeeper in a more targeted form. The broad-based JobKeeper will end, and you might see something supporting the tourism sector, for example, or something supporting the arts. I don't know what it will look like yet, but I do know that JobKeeper, in its current form, can end without upsetting the economy and without panicking markets.

The interest rate settings that we've got are extremely accommodative. We know Philip Lowe, the governor of the Reserve Bank, has said they're likely to remain here for the rest of his term, which takes it out another two or three years. The hundred billion dollar bond buying that occurred a few weeks ago, I think we'll see that again, and we might even see it bigger. The reason I say that is Phillip Lowe was grilled this week by parliament, asking why he didn't make that bond purchasing price bigger if he's not seeing any wage growth. If inflation is not an issue because wage growth isn't an issue, then make your bond purchasing bigger and put more money into the financial system and get banks lending.

(Previous episode) What will global markets have in store for investors in 2021 - Perpetual

In this episode, Matt Sherwood, Head of Investment Strategy at Perpetual joins us discuss the outlook for the Australian and global economy, the potential impact of broadening import bans in China and how investors can generate positive returns in risk markets.

Listen to the episode



POC: 
So it's fair to say you got a fairly strong outlook for growth, economic growth, this year in the Australian market, which hopefully then should flow on to equity values.

RM: Yeah, I think, well, it won't flow directly to equity values. It's interesting. There's actually not a strong correlation between the economy and the stock market in any one year. In fact, there's virtually zero relationship. If you have a strong economy, in the years that you've had a strong economy, you've had as many weak stock markets as you've had strong stock markets. So, I don't think there's a direct relationship, but I do believe that there will be businesses that recover much stronger than the analysts and consensus currently estimates. And you'll do very well owning those businesses.

I also think that with interest rates, as low as they are, combined with the shackles being taken off the banks on their lending, for example, a loosening of the Responsible Lending Act, banks being given or seeing rather a reduction in their non-performing loans. So, people are now paying off their mortgages again. That will give the banks confidence to lend. And we know, for example, that house prices, the single biggest explanatory variable for house prices in the short and medium-term is credit availability or credit access. So, if you've got the banks willing to lend and the government telling them they can lend and house prices are going up, which incentivizes people to borrow, then that's going to be a virtuous circle. And those increasing house prices will also help, through the wealth effect, to give confidence to consumers to spend even more than they've spent during the pandemic. And boy, did they spend during the pandemic.

POC: Yeah, well, that certainly makes sense there. I guess credit is... I've always viewed credit as the oil in the economy. So, the more oil you put in, the faster the economy can move there. So, I'm guessing from your comments there, that the view on the Federal Government's fiscal response and also the RBA's monetary response to the crisis last year?

RM: Look, I think they've done an admirable job. You've got to remember the context that they're operating in. We had what was arguably going to be a depression and I think the government responded and the RBA responded very quickly. The Reserve Bank of Australia is operating in an environment globally where everyone's employing quantitative easing. The RBA has kept their powder dry for a very long time, which gave them huge flexibility when the crisis hit. And so, they'd banked up a lot of credits and they were able to use them, and I think they can do more right now than what they're already doing. But what they're already doing is seeing animal spirits return, which is terrific. So, I think the government have done a good job. I think the RBA is doing a fine job. There are critics, there's always critics, but you've got to remember they're working in an uncertain environment. They're having to make decisions very quickly without a complete picture about what the future's going to look like.

POC: Mm-hmm (affirmative). No, interesting. And I think I share your views there that the RBA certainly held off on any form of quantitative easing for a number of years, and naturally then, at the onset of the crisis, they had the powder there to be able to deploy some bond-buying programmes.

Following on from my earlier comments on market valuations appearing high, there's a lot of talk about a bubble in equities. So, can you tell us whether you think we're actually in a bubble and why?

RM: Yeah. I guess there's two primary arguments for why we might be in a bubble. Number one is the market is overvalued, and many point to the CAPE Shiller ratio, which is the Robert Shiller's cyclically-adjusted PE. It's over 35 times now, nearly 36 times. And the ratio's been back-reverse-engineered to 1870. And so you go back 150 years, there's only one occasion where the ratio was higher than this, and that was during 1999 during the tech bubble. So, investors point first to the market being overvalued as a reason why we're in a bubble.

And the other thing that they point to a lot is these quite frequent instances of speculative enthusiasm and these ridiculous price increases. So for example, last year, you saw Kodak. What's another one? Nikola, which is the electric vehicle hopeful. I mentioned Kodak. So Kodak, Nikola, the Bitcoin price years before that or a couple of years ago, you see these 1,000, 2,000% price increases. And you're seeing a lot of that at the moment. There's a tidal wave of IPOs that are coming to market. That again is a sign that the market's very hot. A lot of those IPOs don't make any money and their share prices are doubling on listing. And so again, anecdotal evidence of irrational behaviour or bubble-like behaviour.

And so, they're the two or three primary arguments for a bubble being in place. But what I would say is that talking about the market first, so the market being expensive, you've got to remember 25% of the S&P 500 is five stocks. And those five stocks are Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google. Those five companies have economic characteristics or business characteristics that we've never seen in the business world before. They've got the most powerful economic moats any business has ever had. They've got the ability to raise prices without a detrimental impact to unit sales volume, because they're monopolists. They've got huge runways for growth. They've got incredible profitability because of their sustainable competitive advantages. Their return on equity goes up as they get bigger. So, they become more profitable as they get larger.

So, it's a little bit like having a bank account. Imagine you had a bank account, Paul, with a million dollars in it, and it was earning 10%. And the bank sends you, "Look, Paul, if you can get that to 10 million, we'll give you 20% a year. If you can get it to 100 million, we'll give you 40% a year." That's an incredible asset. And that's what these companies have, these five companies.

So, while the overall market appears to be expensive, 25% of that market is driven by five companies that have the most awesome economics that we've ever seen in business ever before. Look, that might be hobbled by antitrust action by the government, by Biden and the Democrats. But at the moment, there aren't many businesses like it. And so they deserve a premium, but they're surprisingly trading on PEs of 20, 30, 35 times. They're not super expensive.

So the first argument, the market's expensive, as the PE CAPE Schiller ratio says. You can argue that, "Yeah, it looks expensive, but hey, let's look at the economics of these businesses." These aren't like the internet companies of 1999. The internet had 150 million users in 1999. Today, there's 150 million users in Indonesia. So, you've got massive usage, you've got massive growth potential, you've got better infrastructure, you've got lower latency, better storage, more powerful servers and chips. So, these companies are really, really leveraging that in a way they couldn't do during the first internet bubble. And so, I don't think the stock market overall is in a bubble. I believe there are pockets of bubbles, but I don't believe you should infer from that, that the entire market is in a bubble. The second argument is these individual bubbles. But as I mentioned a moment ago, if you think about companies like Kodak or Hertz last year, or Nikola or Bitcoin between 2017 and 2018, those three stocks, Nikola, Kodak, and Hertz, they went up between 600% and 1,600% last year in a couple of months. And then they collapsed. They fell by 90%, 85 to 90%. And the rest of the market just went on its merry way. So, as long as the entire market isn't in a bubble and as long as the assets that are in a bubble are not held on the balance sheets of systemically-important financial institutions, then you're not going to get a market-wide crash and you're not going to get a financial crisis. And so these things can inflate and deflate without disrupting the rest of the market.

POC: Yeah. Interesting comments there, Roger. I guess in my mind, I think at times, are we right in the whole growth of the IT revolution where certain old business models and practices are dying. And we are seeing some companies that have been losing value on the stock market for probably 10 or 15 years. And on the other side of the coin, we are seeing the FANG stocks that you spoke to in the US and we're seeing small examples in Australia as well. So I think there's some structural changes going on behind the scenes that I think we all need to think back here, cautiously as equity investors there.

RM: I agree with that a hundred percent.



How to deliver a five-star advice experience presentation

Here how you can build a five-star service model from Stewart Bell of Audere Coaching & Consulting as he shares simple strategies to engage with your clients in a memorable way.

Watch the presentation



POC: 
Yeah, it is. It's interesting. And I think only economic historians will write about this period in another 100 years, but unfortunately we won't be around probably to be able to sit back and muse on what we went through.

RM: We can invest in it now and take advantage of it and participate in that. You were talking about big structural changes in IT. You would remember as well as I do, it was only the big companies that had racks and racks of servers, big computing power, and it was only big companies that really could harness the internet even 10 years ago. Today, the Cloud has really democratized the internet. So even a small company can set up and start selling goods on the internet to people all around the world and have just-in-time delivery and so on. So, it really is transforming business. It's upsetting some companies and it's disrupting some, but it's also creating a whole new world of opportunity that you can invest in.

POC: Fascinating. The other big asset class everyone's interested in, obviously in Australia and national obsession, being residential property. I've read various articles on the outlook for residential property. Some people are predicting growth this year of between 10 and 30% in valuations, effectively based on record low home loan interest rates. So what do you think is going to happen to residential property this year in Australia?

RM: I'll just reiterate an article that I wrote for the Australian back in November '20. And that is that '21 will be a very, very good year for property, simply because as I mentioned a moment ago, credit access is the most important variable for property prices and access is being increased, restrictions are being loosened. The shackles are being taken off the banks. People are getting back to re-paying down their mortgages. They're not travelling overseas. When they travel overseas, Paul, every year, Australians spend $42 billion... Actually spend $63 billion on overseas travel and expenditure while they're overseas, but 42 or 43 billion of that is leisure. So if you're not travelling overseas for leisure, that's an extra 42 or 43 billion you could be spending in Australia or putting on a mortgage. And with interest rates at record lows, you can borrow for four years fixed at the moment for 1.98%. That's virtually free money.

So, I think all the ducks are lined up for a very, very good year for property. I said that in the Australian back in November last year. We upgraded our property two weeks before the federal election in 2019. I thought labour would lose. I know everyone else thought they would win. And it would be a disaster for property. But even if labour did win, you're owning property for more than three years, which is the election cycle in Australia. So, I've been relatively bullish property now since the federal election. And I think this year, it accelerates.

POC: Yeah. As an aside, I have a keen interest in classic motorcars and I've been astounded over the last 12 months. How they've doubled, even some have tripled in value. And I think it's back to your point [crosstalk 00:24:02] Oh, yeah. The old Ford Escort, great little car there. But, yeah, it's amazing.

RM: $30,000 for an old Ford Escort. It's incredible.

POC: Yeah. And I guess they are becoming viewed as a real asset there, but with interest rates, with people not spending the money on the family overseas holiday, the money has been finding its way into other areas of the economy and property, your comments make absolute sense. And as you were saying it, that's what I thought. I thought similar to the classic car market as well. So, yeah.

RM: Well, you might remember this time last year when we talked, I talked about low interest rates, sparing booms and bubbles in every asset class. So the same thing's happening in ours, low digit number plates, stamps, coins, wine, you name it. People are flushed with cash, interest rates are low, money is cheap and in abundant supply. So they go and fritter it on all sorts of things.

POC: Fantastic. So moving back to the markets and value stocks have underperformed growth stocks over the last decade, and there's been so much debate as to what has driven these, whether it's record low interest rates, productivity gains from the IT revolution, we mentioned. There's two examples of potentially driving the out performance of growth stocks, but despite value stocks performing well in the last 2020. And some people saying, "Oh, are they starting to rebound?" It continues to be that talk that value investing is dead and never have we seen such a gap between the growth and the value stocks. 

So what's your view on this debate? Do you think we will see the return of value stocks in the medium to long-term?

RM: I think the debate exists, Paul, because the definition of value investing is wrong. So when all of the research that shows that values underperformed growth, that research defines value as a low PE stock or a low price to book stock or a stock with a high yield. Most of those businesses are poor quality businesses. They don't have a lot of growth and they're going to underperform companies that are growing. And so what we've got to do is we've got to define, we've got to understand what value investing actually is.

I talked about in my book, Value.able. You want to buy a high quality company. You want to buy a business with powerful economics. You want to buy a business that generates high rates of return on equity, and you want to buy it at a reasonable price. That doesn't mean it's got a low PE. For example, let's take a company on a PE of 30 times or 40 times earnings that's growing at 30% a year, but the market has it growing at 20% a year. So that's going to be cheap because when it continues to display 30% growth per year, the market's going to revalue that stock up. It's going to reappraise an appropriate PE for that stock. And as the market swings from being too conservative, to being really optimistic about its prospects, the PE is going to expand and a PE of 40 is going to look cheap.

It's the same thing if you think about the FANG stocks, for example, paying 26 times earnings or 40 times earnings for Facebook or Apple five years ago was a bargain. What these businesses demonstrate is the ability to grow faster than people are able to estimate. And so growth and value are two sides of the same coin. What you want to do is buy a company that can grow. And I've always advocated buying businesses that are going to be bigger than they are today in the future. You just want to buy them at a reasonable price.

So we have to redefine what value is, and there's a lot of different ways to define value. The problem with the debate raging about value versus growth is it's a very narrow definition of what value is. And it's usually what they're saying is, the old conventional companies with no growth, they're not outperforming the companies with growth. Well, of course. It's a little bit like asking a Volkswagen Kombi to race a Ferrari on a track and expect the Volkswagen to win. Only if the Ferrari crashes is the Volkswagen going to win. It doesn't matter how many times they race each other.

POC: Going back to the textbook definitions of value, why can't companies growing strong and I know over my career of companies that have grown strong that have been very reasonably priced and those have to be great value. And I've thought, isn't that value as well? So, it's really interesting your insights there about starting with what is the actual definition of a value stock. And I think, yeah, you provided some really, really interesting insights there.

RM: I was just going to add, Paul. Sorry, little bit of a delay between your phone and mine. If an investor finds a company that looks expensive today, but it's going to grow much, much faster than what the consensus currently estimates growth to be, it will end up looking cheap in the future when you look back to today. So it's important, not only to think of value as a price cheaper than its intrinsic value, but also to think if the company can grow much faster than what's expected, it's going to produce an outcome that will make an expensive price today, actually look cheap when you go forward in time.

POC: Yeah. Turning back to the Australian economy, and we mentioned earlier about the RBA's round two of quantitative easing with The Hundred Billion Bond-Buying programme. How long do you think Aussie interest rates are going to remain low? And also, what do you think will likely lead to a spike in inflation that would then obviously flow onto an increase in interest rates?

RM: Phillip Lowe has said rates are going to stay low for the rest of his term. They're probably going to stay here; he's probably not going to increase rates again. So short-term or overnight cash rate of 0.1% for another two to three years, that's hard to accept, and people will speculate that it won't last that long, but that's the current view.

What I would be watching out for are two things. I'd be watching out for a steepening of the yield curve. So if bond rates start to go up and the yield curve steepens, that would be a negative for asset prices. And then as a possible catalyst for that, I'd be watching wage growth. If wage growth starts to go up, or starts to accelerate, that's going to take some time to feed through, but the bond yield curve will start steepening. So they're the two things I would keep an eye out for. But at the moment, my answer to your question is I don't see any reason for short-term interest rates to go up for the next year or two.

POC: And I think the examples of what we've seen in the U.S. and what have you, we've never seen any great rises in interest rates over the last decade there. So yeah, I'm with you that I think over the [inaudible 00:32:09] going to be in an environment of low interest rates there. With equity valuations high and bond returns at all-time lows, where are the best places do you think to invest across Australian asset classes?

RM: Yeah, I think it's a good question to finish up on. I think there are three or four things that make a lot of sense to me. The first one is probably the reopening of the economy. And there's going to be what we call a mix shift. So during the pandemic, when everyone was locked down at home, they spent money on goods. But what's going to happen, we think, is that there's going to be an increasing proportion of spending on services. So people couldn't to the cinema, they couldn't go to a concert. They couldn't travel. They were spending just getting stuff delivered home. I think as the economy reopens, we'll see a shift towards spending on services more.

We'll also see companies benefit from the reopening itself and take advantage of that cyclicality. So businesses like Alliance Airways for example, is going to do well. I think IDP Education has foreign students returned to universities in Australia after they've been vaccinated. Ingenia Communities, I think will do well as people travel. You know, they own caravan parks. We've seen you can't book a holiday home; if you don't own one, it's very, very hard to book one in some of the more desirable holiday destinations in Australia. So you're going to see more revenue accrue to companies that are providing services and benefiting from a reopening. That's the first one.

The second one we saw accelerate during the pandemic, but it's got a really, really long runway for growth, and that's that's cloud computing and technology and communications. So during the pandemic, more people running conferences on Zoom and Teams, and Face Timing. More people downloading music and streaming video, movies, and so on.

So that's all an increasing demand from the cloud, or basically increasing demand of the cloud. But cloud penetration is 22%. It's where mobile phones were 12 years ago, laptops were 18 years ago. It really is really just at its nascent stage. And the cloud has a long, long runway for growth. So we think businesses like Macquarie Telecom and NEXTDC are going to do well for years and years as they develop out their footprint. And you know, the telecommunication side, a company like Uniti Group, MyNetFone, Spark, those sorts of businesses, I think they'll do really well. They'll do really well just by virtue of who's running them. And the consolidation opportunity that's in front of them. Uniti Group, for example, is run by Vaughan Bowen, who used to run M2, and of course, everyone made a lot of money out of M2.

And then when the pandemic is over, when everyone's been inoculated or vaccinated, I think we'll have the luxury of being able to think about other world problems. And one of those problems will be the environment. And so that's going to happen at the same time that we've reached the tipping point for electric vehicles or hydrogen vehicles. And so we know California, for example, the state of California, which is the biggest passenger car market in the United States, the United States being the biggest passenger car market in the world. They basically said within 10 years, I think it's less than that in fact, they don't want any passenger cars sold with emissions. So they want all cars sold, to have new cars to have zero emissions. So that means every car manufacturer in the world has got to retool to manufacture electric cars. There is currently an oversupply of lithium for batteries, but that will be soaked up very quick after the tipping point for the manufacturing of electric vehicles.

And so I think when the pandemic is over, we're going to see renewed conversations about electric vehicles. Investors are going to realize the tipping point's being reached, the lithium price is going to go up. So businesses like... lithium. So businesses like Mineral Resources are a [inaudible 00:37:00]. I think they're going to benefit from that shift. And their share prices have already done really well, but I think there's probably more to go.

And then the final thing, which, I'm sorry for taking up so much of your time Paul, the final thing is income. I think income is going to be a really important thing this year, more so than in any previous year. And what we're going to see is we're going to see a lot of pension funds and a lot of super funds around the world, bidding for assets that demonstrate reliable annuity-style income streams.

And so I think you want to own some of the REITs, for example, like National Storage or the Waypoint REIT. I think they're going to do it pretty well because of their income, but I also think you're going to see a lot of mergers and acquisitions activity in businesses that are already producing annuity-style income, or have the potential to do so, like Macquarie Telecom, for example. Macquarie Telecom we talked about a moment ago, it's going to own a network of cloud storage data centres, but once they fully developed and they're fully tenanted, and the ATO is in there, and the stock exchange is in there, and all the big companies are using their services and they've got full occupancy, well, that's just going to throw off cash every year as an income stream. And there'll be pension funds that want to buy those income streams. So they're the sort of businesses that we think might come into play over the next 12 months as a lot of these very flush with cash pension funds, sharpen their pencils and decide how they're going to deliver better returns to their clients.

POC: Yeah, well, you've certainly rationally articulated a number of exciting investment opportunities we can look forward to going forward, but I guess the [inaudible 00:38:50] also is that it certainly pays to think about having active stock selection and active management in your portfolios there.

So at that point, Roger, we will leave it. I wish to thank you very much for joining us again at the Netwealth Portfolio Construction Podcast. I wish you and all of the staff at Montgomery the best for 2021, and certainly to the listener. Thank you for joining us again, and I certainly hope 2021 is a better and more positive year than what we've experienced in 2020. And I look forward to joining you on the next instalment of the Netwealth Portfolio Construction Podcast series. Thank you all.

You may also enjoy

 

Portfolio Construction

Investing in the global leaders of tomorrow

Explore the factors driving performance in the global small and mid cap sector and its future outlook with James Abela and Maroun Younes from Fidelity. Discover the opportunities outside of Australia and why more investors should consider a global small and mid cap strategy.

Listen to the podcast

Portfolio Construction

Is this time different for bonds? 

Bond markets are adjusting after yields moved sharply higher in the first quarter of 2021. Schroders Fund Manager Kellie Wood explores the trends set to shape markets in 2021, and explains why she believes the repricing of bonds represents a healthy reset.

Listen to the podcast

Portfolio Construction

Dynamic asset allocations in volatile times

Kej Somaia, Co-Head of Multi-Asset Solutions Kej outlines the importance of dynamic multi-asset portfolios when investing. We discuss inflation, bond yields, active vs passive strategies, and ethical investing. Kej also shares his thoughts on the next 10 year returns for fixed income and equities given the strong returns of the last decade.

Listen to the podcast