Generating income with a multi-sector fixed income strategy
Adam Grotzinger, Managing Director,
and Senior Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman
Adam provides his outlook for 2021, why he is bullish on US and global trends, and how we could be expecting the strongest growth years since the pre-GFC era. Adam outlines some current market opportunities for investors wanting a regular and durable income whilst sharing his insights into the current low interest environment, inflationary pressures and the growing dominance of fiscal policy.
Paul O'Connor: Welcome to the Netwealth Investment Podcast series. My name is Paul O'Connor and I'm the head of investment management research. Today we welcome Adam Grotzinger, who is a portfolio manager with Neuberger Berman's fixed income team. Neuberger Berman Group is a privately owned and employee controlled investment management firm. They were founded in 1939 as an investment management business and offer capabilities across a range of asset classes, including fixed income, equities and alternatives, and are responsible for managing around $357 billion US dollars as of the 30th of June last year.
Adam Grotzinger joined the firm in 2015, and is a senior fixed income portfolio manager based in Chicago. Prior to joining Neuberger Berman, Adam worked in the fixed income teams at Franklin Templeton in Singapore, London and California. Adam graduated Cum Laude from the University of Vermont with a B.S. in International Business and a minor in Political Science. He's also a Chartered Financial Analyst. So certainly he's well qualified and educated to join us on today's podcast.
The Netwealth IDPS investment menu currently has two Neuberger Berman funds on the menu, including the Strategic Income Fund that Adam works on as a co-portfolio manager. Given Adam works as a key member of the fixed income team, I thought for today's podcast we'd focus on the fixed income market. So it would be good to understand Neuberger Berman's views on the outlook for 2021 for interest rates, inflation and global economic growth and how the post COVID recovery will look.
During 2020 interest rates continued going lower in the face of COVID induced economic slowdown, and the extraordinary monetary actions of central banks. These actions included more rounds of quantitative easing, and even our own Australian reserve bank started their own QA program and have had two rounds of $100 billion bond buying programs. So it should be an interesting discussion with Adam today, and the way forward for the global economy and can we actually wean our self-off QA and will this then allow interest rates to rise more naturally.
Firstly Adam, I hope you and your family have been safe and well, but how's life going in Chicago? And I guess we hear that the daily rates of COVID infections in the US are dropping, which is great news given how hard hit the US has been hit by the COVID disease.
Adam Grotzinger: Firstly, thank you. It's a pleasure to be here on this podcast and to spend the time talking about markets and our views. Everybody in my family's been healthy and well, which has been very fortunate and you're right, the US has certainly been improving in terms of its vaccination rollout and improving in terms of its case counts. And that's all been, I think, encouraging for, certainly the forward looking environment for growth and degrees of returns of some degree of normalisation to the economy as we go through 2021 and even into 2022.
POC: So is life starting to return to some level of normality for the people of Chicago?
AG: It is. It's highly variable I think as you go across the country, but in aggregate there is improvement. In terms of schooling there's certainly much discussion about more nationalised return to schooling. The public schools have struggled with that, but private schools have done, I think, an incredible job in allowing children to come back into school and work in school.
Travel is picking back up. And certainly you're seeing signs of pent up demand for spending. Spending on services and also ongoing, I think, strong spending on goods consumption, which is really a regime shift from the goods consumption that we saw really pre COVID.
POC: So, moving onto the global economy, what's your outlook for 2021 and what are the potential tail risks for the year ahead?
AG: When we look at 2021 and even lump into that 2022, so the next two years, we're pretty bullish on growth. We can start with the US case in point, but I think what's even more interesting than just the US growth outlook is actually the global economy. I think some of the trends that I can talk about as it relates to the US are almost, it's a microcosm for similar trends that we're seeing in the global arena, including China and also including emerging markets.
And really what leaves us bullish on the growth prospects over the next couple years, arguably we think these could be the strongest growth years many of us have seen really since the pre GFC era and actually could surprise markets to the upside in terms of growth are a few things. I think one, if we just use the US as an example, one is the rubber band snapping back. So, that pent up demand that I eluded to earlier, a return to greater service consumption is certainly in the cards for '21 and '22 as this vaccination rollout continues and case counts continue to come down with regards to COVID. But also behind that I think is ongoing strength and goods consumption and some of the trends that we saw emerge during COVID still have a nice tailwind behind them.
I think what's interesting about that rubber band snapping back in terms of just overall consumption is you don't need to reach real far to see a return to normal levels of growth in some of the service sectors and industries that are very sizeable in the US. So, take for example the healthcare industry in the US as a prime example of services. That was really set back substantially as a result of COVID. Healthcare spending was about 17% of the shortfall in nominal GDP that we saw in 2020 in the US.
In our base case for 2021 and 2022 and even longer term is that it's a pretty quick service consumption activity to snap back. There's only so long individuals can delay basic healthcare services or procedures that they've put off as a result of the environment around COVID. And so as that COVID case count comes down, as there's a greater herd immunity over time as the vaccinations roll out, a return to more normalised healthcare spending can bring back significant gains to GDP, but can also bring back significant gains in terms of employment.
If you look at the private sector, labour figures, healthcare is just under 10% of the labour market. So you look at a low hanging fruit, let's call it healthcare services which are usually quite stable and sticky, in a snap back of that to more normalised trends is already very additive to the overall growth environment in the US.
AG: The other side of it is a couple more things. One would be just thinking about the propensity to consume, and how well consumer balance sheets are as a function of this environment, as a function of the fiscal spend in support of consumption as we've gone through this. You're looking at potentially $800 billion in consumption spending that could be unlocked over the next year to two years. As savings rates in the US, as an example, go from lower teens back down to a more normalised post GFC era savings rate of around 8%. And that desire to spend I think is certainly there as we work our way through this crisis and out the other end, and that's encouraging to see that there's dry powder so to speak with regards to consumption and the ability to consume.
And then the last point is it's not all about just banking on service sector consumption. We've seen pretty structural shifts here in goods consumption, and I think that that goods consumption isn't necessarily going away, even as the economy starts to normalise over time. And so, the short of it would be expect goods consumption to remain elevated versus its historical trends and that consumer spending there can be strong. And let's remember that goods consumptions has generally been a deflator for the overall American economy, and higher levels of goods spending coupled with higher prices to goods as we're seeing in the data, could be positive not only for growth but some signs of inflationary pressures building more [crosstalk 00:10:47].
POC: Yeah, well it would certainly be positive to see the consumer starting to take over the ... or becoming a larger contributor to GDP growth given the governments I guess, and central banks have been doing all the heavy lifting over the last 18 months or so. So, what are the potential tail risks do you think we could see over 2021?
AG: I think one of the easily identifiable tail risks is the vaccination rollout and is that more delayed and less powerful let's say, to dealing with social distancing and those realities that have been brought about by COVID. While that's a risk, we think it's relatively small. We don't assign a high probability to that rollout of the vaccine, but we need to watch that. So that's a data point we'll need to be watching.
I think another risk, and this goes into your first question on just growth, the drivers of growth, is how do the other factors that enable growth, which are central banks and what they're doing in the fiscal front contribute to that growth environment and are there any weak points in that regard? And I think on both of those points, we also are monitoring what does the fiscal support continue to look like, how large and sizeable can that be to continue to get us to the other end. I think on that front, given the blue ripple that we've had in the US, there is the ability here and the desire to bring about a more powerful fiscal package.
That's also just correlating with greater populism in politics, and I think that's really interesting. We've been through a 20+ year environment where really fiscals been on the back burner, and it's always been about what can the central bank do for us. What can the central bank do for growth? What can the central do for financial conditions, et cetera? And we're entering a new era here where central banks are still going to be accommodative, but the delta and gross stimulus is coming more from governments and more from fiscal. And when you merge that growing fiscal dominance with this snap back we're having just in consumption and some of the trends that we're expecting and seeing in some of the data there, we think that multiplier can be very powerful for growth and also filters into that more bullish expectation we have over the next couple years in terms of the outlook for growth.
POC: Interesting. We've seen interest rates fall over the last decade and markets and consumers have certainly become used to cheap money, but what are the impacts of an extended period of the low interest rate environment we've lived in?
AG: I think there's a couple things to consider here. One is as fixed income investors, what are your two principal risks you're always thinking about at a very high level in bond investing? One is duration risk, and the other is credit risk. And given the macro backdrop that we had just discussed, we certainly think this low interest rate environment is more favorably disposed towards taking more credit risk and lessening your duration risk and not overexposing yourself to some of this normalisation of nominal interest rates that we're seeing year to date and we expect to continue to play out with this incoming data on growth, this incoming data on the multiplier effect of fiscal policy and a steepening to yield curves you can see as a result of that stronger growth or inflation pulse coming through in the data.
So be cautious on owning longer maturity, longer duration, in particular government bonds, but also spread sectors like corporate bonds that trade type to government bond markets where that backup and nominal yields can create more of a headwind given a tightness of credit margin, or credit spread over those risk-free curves. So clearly credit is your friend here. I don't think it's blind. We can discuss that later. 2020 was a beta year for credit, 2021, 2022 is a little bit more discerning on where you want to be in credit. But credit fundamentals are improving, credit spreads still offer good margin and you want to be playing relative value within credit here to take advantage of some of the opportunities within the markets.
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POC: So as vaccines rollout and the global economic recovery continues, do you expect to see inflation rise and should this be a concern for investors?
AG: We do, and I think it's a question of what that inflation trajectory looks like more short term and then what the structural long term is and more medium long term story to inflation. And on both of those fronts we're more positive that there is greater, there is more variables lending themselves towards inflationary build. And that we could see, certainly in the short term, core inflation in the US creeping up, maybe peaking off and coming down. But longer term, and more importantly is the dynamics that play underlying that I think speak towards a longer and more durable build to inflation in the system.
And the main dynamics we're looking at there are more on the demand side, a demand side pool of inflation through ongoing and structurally strong goods inflation and goods consumption in the economy. Look at the US housing market as an example, which has gone from a million, on average, existing home sales to about seven million. As more Americans own homes that necessitates greater degrees of good consumption to work on those homes and populate those homes and furnish those houses. That's just one example.
AG: I think as we also come out of COVID, there's just different consumption patterns happening for the American consumer where the old services that were consumed may be shifting to goods consumptions. Think about your old gym membership. Have some people permanently shifted to working at home and having exercise at home? Think about Peleton as an example. Or entertainment consumption. Do we go fully back to going out to the movies in movie theatres, or is it greater goods consumption of that content through your own home entertainment?
The other bit of inflation more headline would be oil and commodity. I think shale in our view and the shale industry in the US is having less of that marginal impact on oil prices. You're seeing strengthening oil prices here to date, and that should stay stable to elevated through time as a function of shale being less impactful. And then finally the fiscal dynamic that I mentioned at the beginning and a couple times already, that fiscal pulse coinciding with a bounce back in consumption is all very inflationary in its dynamics.
The other side of it that I think is important on inflation is, what is the central bank policy added to towards inflation. We've also seen a paradigm shift there where the fed has been very vocal about not wanting to kill early signs of inflation and actually being comfortable with more symmetrical inflation where you have periods where it runs above target to offset periods where it's been under performing target expectations on inflation and to enable and to encourage inflationary pressures to build. It's been a great struggle for central banks. The fed has failed in meeting its inflation target since the GFC and there's a strong desire to reboot some of that inflationary dynamic in the overall economy.
So, you have your underlying fundamental trends that I've mentioned that I think are encouraging, but also central bank policy dynamics which are more encouraging in wanting to see inflationary pressures build. And I think the convergence of that is very positive for inflationary dynamics and inflationary expectations.
POC: So turning to central bank policy, if inflation and interest rates do rise this year, do you think quantitative easing policies will start to get rolled back by central banks, and if it is wound back is this a further driver for interest rates?
AG: That's been the big debate in markets, which is a little bit of the markets trying to sniff out taper tantrum let's call it, and does the fed prematurely act here, or where is the central bias in the fed? Is it indeed to remain accommodative, support financial market conditions and really keep the foot on the accelerator at zero? And that latter view that I spoke about there is more aligned with our thoughts that there's a little bit of two way talk in markets, but our central scenario is still very much one for a fed, and many of the central banks around the world to just be a stabiliser in the backdrop, but not really there as the pushing the needle on growth and that being shifted more to fiscal.
So fiscal's taking the reigns, but the fed is very clearly going to be maintaining a supportive posture and a supportive stance on the front end. And so what I think that means as fixed income investors is the front end of the curve, if you know that the fed funds is at zero and you're at zero now for a few years at least, or a couple years at minimum, what that means is your two year bond in an old regime now looks like your four year bond. So people go out the curve for that additional yield pickup, and it broadly means that the front end of curves are pretty stable out to five years.
As you push out into 10 year parts of curves, 20 years, 30 years and the really long ends, that's where things start to become more unsettled and I think a bit more volatile and two way in nature. And you've seen that. We've seen a pretty good backup in the 10 year yield year to date, just as a case in point. The 30 year yield, case in point. And I think that's healthy. We think we could be at 1 1/2, 1 3/4% on a 10 year treasury here, but that there is somewhat of a ceiling in this lacklustre yield world where you start at certain levels to get buyers coming into these markets from abroad. European buyers, think about German pensions, think about Japanese pensions that are stuck in even worse yield environments. At certain levels and thresholds on 10 year treasuries as an example, that becomes very attractive on a currency hedge basis for those institutions.
So, there is more volatility, more downside on the longer end of curves. I think that's right. I think there's a containment to that over the next year or so here, but it certainly doesn't help you in generating return or yield for your clients and fixed income portfolios. So you want to be cautious about that risk.
AG: Yeah, so I think that's right. It is a favourable environment for credit if you agree with the views of the world that I've outlined here. And then it comes down, as I mentioned earlier, to relative value credit and where in credit do you have less of that duration risk? Where in credit do you have less of the event risk? Where in credit do you have ongoing and improving credit fundamentals that can be a stabiliser or a net improver to credit margins and compression?
And clearly in our view in this low yield world, that's shifting towards the yield parts of the fixed income market that offer you that pick up and coupon, that pickup and carry over the higher quality ends of the spread markets. But not just going there blindly. Going into, for instance, one of the areas we really like in fixed income are the BB high yield names that we think are rising stars and could be upgraded to investment grade over the next 12, 18, 24 months depending on the credit thesis for the particular company.
And so, that strong, existing strong credit fundamental backdrop for those issuers, coupled with improvement in their credit fundamentals means that while those spreads have tightening from March when we were at wides, there's still room for compression on spread in addition to getting good carry versus a traditional BBB, or let's call it a single A, high grade borrower.
And so in this environment where you just really have a fed holding the line at zero for at least the next couple years, I think the relative value demand in fixed income is for investors to continue to push out into yield and yield that, while it may look low, on an historical basis don't be surprised if it can breach some of the historical levels on tights, or stay at tights for a multi-year period off of that recently strong credit fundamental backdrop.
POC: And are there any specific corporate examples that you can give us that have been improving the credit quality? You spoke about BBB being, or BB being a sweet spot there. So, can you give us a couple of examples of companies or even sectors in the market where you focused on to look for the actual specific opportunities?
AG: Yeah, maybe instead of going through that I can expand upon some of these views and bring in some examples of industries or things that we're looking at. One of the areas that in contrast to that BB rising star segment that we're actually more cautious on are investment grade corporate issuers. And you think about investment grade and the higher quality ends, single lay types of borrowers that are out there. Some of the names in industries that, let's say did well through COVID. So technology, media, consumer retail, healthcare, energy, financials, I think some of those credit sectors in high quality ends of the market, the companies have built war chests as a result of COVID and are in a very strong position in investment grade and are looking to do strategic acquisitions.
So one of the reasons we're cautious on investment grade is that I think the strongest issuers in those markets, you should be cautious as a bond holder of more M&A activity, which is not as good for you as a creditor, coupled with longer duration bonds that you get from those borrowers in the interest rate backdrop that I described.
So investment grade is trading at much tighter spreads on an historical basis than what we see today in the high yield market. Investment grade issuers that are in a strong standing are also more prone to event risk, or M&A risk, which can be challenging for you as a bond holder. And those sectors that work through COVID strong I think are most at risk in this environment.
On the other side of the equation when you go into high yield, it's not only BB rising starts in some of these industries, but I think it's also the willingness and the desire through strong credit underwriting. If you have a strong research staff, to be looking at sectors of the market that were impacted by COVID still have some headwinds to get through here; although, they're dissipating as a result of COVID. But more importantly, separating the short term pain from COVID from the bigger question of, what do those names look like more longer term? Have they been temporarily impacted as businesses, or permanently disrupted?
And so there's names in the leisure sector, like the airlines let's say, or the cruise ships. If you look at some of the deals they've came to market with, those look attractive to us. One, we think that those businesses are not permanently disrupted. You can see that through their forward looking booking calendars. You look at the cruise ships and very strong demand further out for advance ticket sales, you look at the airlines and the improvement that we're seeing there for flight demand as examples of short term disruption is very different from permanent secular structural disruption, and we're not seeing that there.
And then the deals they've been able to tap the market with have been very attractive. You're being compensated well for the risk. The cruise lines for instance, last year were coming to market, did a great job at accessing the market point one. So they demonstrated an ability to raise capital, not only in debt, but equities, convertibles, just across the whole cap structure, which gave them 12-24 months of operating liquidity runway. That's great for their solvency and ongoing operations to bridge the gap. And when they came in the senior market, they were coming with senior secured deals against their cruise ship fleets, which are very valuable expensive assets. And the value of that collateral is smaller than what they have on cash on balance sheet.
So an 11% coupon on a cruise ship line, on a senior secured bond backed by its collateral of its ships, we think that's attractive in a sense of a way of getting yield while stepping out a bit onto the risk spectrum without overly exposing yourself to an industry that's permanently disrupted.
POC: Yeah, well I guess as you're making the comments there I'm thinking, there is opportunity in some of the unloved sectors across the global economy, and particularly the ones that are being impacted significantly by COVID-19 and the economic turndown. I guess cruise ships are a great example there. It is a temporary impact on the clientele and as the global economy opens back up, yeah we can see those tops of the industries and sectors returning more closer to a normality.
Credit defaults typically peak late in the economic cycle. So where do you think we're at at the moment with corporate defaults and have they peaked?
AG: We think they have. So for instance, if you look at the high yield market in the US and our expectations from bottom up analysis that we do with these issuers, we've come to the view that we're looking at 2, 2 1/2% type of default activity in the market, which is well below the long term historic trends for the high yield market. I think it's still slightly below and our view of that is below the market consensus which has been coming down, but it's still in a 3, 3 1/2 handle.
And so I think that speaks to the pain that has been felt, and high yield has been real but the sectors are behind us and are going through a restructuring. And so in a forward looking basis, there is a declining default expectations that we have come through through that bottom up line by line basis of the market. And again, what drives credit margin or credit spread? On a forward looking basis is really, at the end of the day, what our expectations for defaults are going to be.
And it's not uncommon as well in high yield where you can see credit margins up, credit margins down, but there can be periods of time where you have supportive macro fundamental backdrop where credit margins just bounce around in a range. And the more dominant driver of return for your investment in those markets is actually coupon. It's collecting that higher carry, which is accretive to return with stability to credit margins, if not slightly tighter, or bouncing around in a range.
And so, we think 2021 is actually a year where you're going to have more of your return driven from carry, from coupon than you are through sizeable movements in spread directionality.
POC: So, where do you see the largest credit spread compression potential this year, and where also do you see price appreciation potential? I guess as I ask that I'm thinking about your comments around BB rated securities.
AG: Yeah, that's it. Simply put, we think it's in the high yield market. In our strategic bond fund, which is a multi-sector, flexible bond fund, we've gone from a weight of around 15% last year in high yield, to really doubling that, and more than doubling that now up to just under 40% of our portfolio. And there's a nice anchoring that in the BB improving rising star stories in the high yield market, but there's also good exposure into the single B's, some selective CCC's that we think are solvent operating companies that could be upgraded into single B through time. And just really avoiding the workout ends and the distressed ends of the markets.
So I think highly selective industry issuer exposure in high yield not only offers you good carry in an environment, in an ongoing environment of financial repression with the fed and other central banks holding the line at zero. But think about it more simply, in a global fixed income market where more than 70% of the market is yielding less than 1%, the ongoing relative value shift from investors is out the yield spectrum. And I think high yield's a big beneficiary. So that's one big area we like.
But the other area we've been pushing into has also been emerging markets. Some selective names in governments that issue in US dollars that are offering higher yields, but also in local currencies. So, we think that the currencies of many of those EM countries, and some of them that are more commodity exposed, not only have been cheap for a multi-year basis period but we could potentially see some catalyst unlocking that value in EM currencies. So we've build up to about a 5% position in that asset recognising that it's more volatile in nature, but also recognising that the deep value that's offered in those countries as their terms of trade improve with the improving commodity story in how that helps their current account and potentially unlocks value in your currencies.
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POC: What do you believe are the potential headwinds and tailwinds for the fixed income market as the new Biden administration comes into power?
AG: It's all eyes on fiscal right now, and the market is certainly fixated with that. I think that's been a big driver of markets, and rightly should be. I do think it will have a significant multiplier effect on growth, on job creation, on inflationary pressures in the economy and that merits its attention in the bond markets.
Longer term we have to see. I think what we need to monitor is how does the administration deal with taxation and regulation, and how fast do they move on, let's say higher taxation and greater regulation and how do those variables offset some of the stronger growth dynamics created from the fiscal end of that administrations agenda?
So I think the jury's still out on the long term impact. Certainly the markets and ourselves have been viewing it as favourable in the short term, but we need a little bit more detail and clarity on I think taxation policy, which I think can be overcome through fiscal. But more importantly, regulation and what does that start to do to the use and productive use of capital in the American economy.
POC: So, you made quite a few comments during the podcast today Adam around government bonds, investment grade credit, high yield. So I guess in the end, you view the market as, or the best way to play out a fixed interest exposure in a portfolio would be through a manager that can actively allocate across multi-sectors I'm guessing. So, can you make a few comments around the importance that you believe of having a multi-sector fixed income strategy in your portfolio?
AG: Sure. I think there's a few key benefits. One is an environment like this where fixed income indices that are multi-sector indices. Let's talk about the aggregate index which is very commonly used for broad based fixed income exposure by many investors. Those indices are just really constructed with high grade debt only, and those indices just back out the duration, let's say, of what those high grade exposures mean in those indices.
And so what investors have left using those indices are taking on is undue risk. They're taking on more duration than perhaps make sense for them from the total return perspective. They're taking on sector exposures, which may not be the most attractive on a relative value basis at a given point in time.
So we are big advocates for a flexible bond approach, such as what we're doing in our strategic income fund where we're managing more for the totality of return and the attractiveness of monthly income that we can deliver to investors without exposing those investors in the fund to any undue risks at that given point in time. We like to think about a 12 month horizon, so we don't think out three, five years but rather for the next forward looking year. What is the right composition of a portfolio for the risks on the horizon and where relative value is most compelling in bond markets? What is that balance between duration and credit risk, and where are you better rewarded and where are you taking less risk to your capital and your total return as an investor as a function of that?
AG: So for instance, in that fund today we're running at the lower end of our duration band, we have about a three year duration. So compared to a market index that has six or seven years duration, that's materially less than you're getting by just passively investing in multi-sector fixed income. We're taking more conscious exposure to the high yield market as I eluded to earlier in my comments. Picking off some opportunities in emerging markets, trimming out bonds that have materially appreciated well in price and investment grade and higher quality ends of the market. And building in some inflation protection through tips or inflation protected securities to balance the overall portfolio against the credit book we have going today. The final point I’ll make there is the other advantages of those strategies, and it varies by managers, but in our approach where we are constantly thinking about relative value, is the adeptness to rotate, and be nimble enough, to rotate in and out of opportunities, as relative value evolves.
So last year we went from 20% up to 40% into investment grade corporate credit, we emphasis very long duration paper, in corporate credit at the peak of the crisis, so Walt Disney coming to market with a 30-year bond, that’s the type of stuff we wanted to own. We had a lot more certainty in monetizing that, not only was there value, a lot of things can be cheap, but how confident are you in monetizing that value within a 12-month period, and that’s constantly how we are thinking.
Today that’s not investment grade, we’ve gone from a 140% high down to about 15%, and we are still trimming some out of the portfolio today. And we are moving it into more high yield. But these things are not static, the bond market is not static, and I think that the beauty of a flexible approach to fixed income, we have the discretion and the leeway to navigate that value as an when it occurs but also leave those opportunities when they no longer exist.
POC: Yes, Adam, well I guess, I’ve always have been of the view that given the size of the fixed income market and complexity of the market, it’s very difficult for a retail investor in Australia to appropriately allocate to individual strategies, across the whole market, so I guess I’ve always been a proponent of multi-sector fixed income strategies. You have highlighted in this podcast about the opportunities and the risk management. I want to thank you for your time and your view on the economy and interest rates and let’s hope the governments around the world take on a fiscal spend to compliment the work done by central banks.
Thank you very much for joining us on the podcast and I look forward to joining you on the next installment. And thank you very much again Adam for joining us and I hope you have a great day.
AG: Thank you very much.
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